Political Economy of Wheat Prices

This paper presents an analysis of wheat price behavior in Afghanistan in the past 8 years, between 1996 and 2004. The analysis is based on market prices collected by WFP, which are the only time series market data available in Afghanistan and builds on several years of field observations by the author. Analyzing wheat prices in the frenzied years between 1996 and 2004 reveals how Market functions in Afghanistan. This paper analyses the under-laying factors that caused changes in wheat prices and explores the existence of correlations with international wheat market prices, local cereal supply, food aid and the political/military situation prevailing on the ground. Read the paper....